Pay MemoPay Memo
Every input. Fully transparent.

Transparency & methodology

Pay Memo uses only public Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and HUD data, plus USPS ZIP-county crosswalks. This page lists the exact indices, locality factors, and blending logic so finance, HR, and auditors can recreate every estimate.

Generate Memo How it works overview ↗

Nowcast pipeline

We start with the latest BLS OEWS wage percentiles (state or MSA), then layer the following adjustments:

  1. Linear scaling for the requested hours/week and weeks/year.
  2. Optional benefits markup (employer cost of benefits vs base wage).
  3. Industry pay updates: ECI captures total comp movement, and AHE captures hourly trends since the OEWS reference month.
  4. ZIP-level locality factor based on HUD Fair Market Rents (county-level) mapped to ZIPs via the USPS crosswalk (see below).
  5. Optional conversion between annual and hourly display.

Every exported memo bundles the SOC, industry key, index release dates, and multipliers so reviewers can reproduce the range independently.

Indices & acronyms

We rely on a short list of federal series so stakeholders can trace every uplift. Each component is logged alongside the output for audit files and internal reviews.

ECI
Employment Cost Index
AHE
Average Hourly Earnings (CES)
FMR
HUD Fair Market Rents (2BR)
ZIP
USPS ZIP-county crosswalk
SOC
Standard Occupation Classification
NAICS
Industry tagging for AHE blends

Detailed workflow reference

We kept the strongest explanatory content from the original How It Works page here, so teams can access the full context without adding friction to the primary conversion pages.

Current (Nowcast) at a glance

Current mode starts with published OEWS percentiles, then layers federal index and locality adjustments to reflect in-period market movement.

  • OEWS remains the baseline anchor for defensibility.
  • ECI and AHE provide controlled updates from the OEWS reference month.
  • ZIP-level locality factors apply after index adjustments.
Industry-only mode

When occupation detail is not final yet, you can estimate from industry inputs and still generate a documented baseline for planning.

  • Useful for early staffing models and board planning.
  • Keeps assumptions explicit until SOC selection is finalized.
  • Can be refined later into occupation-specific scenarios.
ZIP locality adjustment

Locality factors use HUD Fair Market Rent data and USPS ZIP-county crosswalks so nearby geographies can produce different defensible ranges.

  • ZIP values inherit county factors through weighted mappings.
  • Higher locality factors lift the indexed range; lower factors reduce it.
  • Memo outputs retain locality context for reviewer traceability.
Annual vs hourly basis

The workflow supports annual and hourly presentation so compensation can match how offers, budgets, and files are maintained.

  • Values convert using configured schedule assumptions.
  • The same scenario can be reviewed in either basis without changing the source data.
  • Memo exports preserve the selected basis context.
Percentiles and scenario logic

Percentiles frame defensible ranges and scenario comparison shows how role, market, and assumption changes affect outcomes.

  • Use P10/P25/P50/P75/P90 to show low-to-high positioning.
  • Compare multiple scenarios side-by-side before memo export.
  • Document rationale in memo setup fields at the final step.
Adjustments and benefits load

Hours, weeks, and optional benefits load let users align outputs to real payroll and employer-cost framing.

  • Hours and weeks scale the baseline compensation math.
  • Benefits load estimates total employer cost, not just cash wages.
  • Assumptions remain explicit for file review.
Limitations and good practice

As with any statistical benchmark, quality depends on selecting the closest occupation, geography, and assumptions for the actual role.

  • Use official occupation titles where possible.
  • Capture scope, level, and market constraints in memo notes.
  • Treat outputs as structured support, not a standalone legal conclusion.
Reproducibility for reviewers

Pay Memo stores series, source month/year, and multiplier context so reviewers can recreate calculations independently.

  • Source links and model metadata are preserved with the workflow.
  • Dataset refresh cadence is tracked below on this page.
  • Raw JSON exports are available for technical validation.

Blended index weights

The Estimator blends ECI, AHE, and locality inputs without renormalising user weights. Today's weights are:

Employment Cost Index (ECI)
70%

Captures total compensation growth for each NAICS supersector.

Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)
20%

Keeps pace with recent hourly pay moves in the same industry.

Locality factor
10%

Scales the estimate up/down based on ZIP-to-county living cost differentials.

Industry index sources

Each industry key maps to a specific BLS Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Current Employment Statistics (AHE) series. We publish the references and last chained multiplier for quick validation.

Need the plain-language overview? Visit the industries explainer.

IndustryECI seriesAHE seriesLatest monthECI multiplier
Accommodation & Food ServicesECI_ACCOMMODATION_FOOD_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_ACCOMMODATION_FOOD2026-031.018
Administrative & Support and Waste MgmtECI_ADMIN_SUPPORT_WASTE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_ADMIN_SUPPORT_WASTE2026-031.016
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & HuntingECI_AGRICULTURE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_AGRICULTURE2026-031.022
Arts, Entertainment & RecreationECI_ARTS_ENT_REC_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_ARTS_ENT_REC2026-031.020
ConstructionECI_CONSTRUCTION_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_CONSTRUCTION2026-031.019
Educational ServicesECI_EDUCATION_SERVICES_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_EDUCATIONAL_SERVICES2026-031.036
Finance & InsuranceECI_FINANCE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_FINANCE2026-031.019
Health Care & Social AssistanceECI_HEALTHCARE_SOCIAL_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_HEALTHCARE_SOCIAL2026-031.029
InformationECI_INFORMATION_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_INFORMATION2026-031.023
Management of Companies & EnterprisesECI_MANAGEMENT_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_MANAGEMENT2026-031.015
ManufacturingECI_MANUFACTURING_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_MANUFACTURING2026-031.021
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil & Gas ExtractionECI_MINING_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_MINING2026-031.021
Other Services (except Public Administration)ECI_OTHER_SERVICES_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_OTHER_SERVICES2026-031.035
Professional, Scientific & Technical ServicesECI_PROF_SCI_TECH_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_PROF_SCI_TECH2026-031.017
Public AdministrationECI_PUBLIC_ADMIN_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_PUBLIC_ADMIN2026-031.000
Real Estate & Rental and LeasingECI_REAL_ESTATE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_REAL_ESTATE2026-031.014
Retail TradeECI_RETAIL_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_RETAIL2026-031.019
Software & Tech (alias of Information)ECI_INFORMATION_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_INFORMATION2026-031.017
Transportation & WarehousingECI_TRANSPORT_WAREHOUSING_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_TRANSPORT_WAREHOUSING2026-031.025
UtilitiesECI_UTILITIES_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_UTILITIES2026-031.030
Wholesale TradeECI_WHOLESALE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_WHOLESALE2026-031.026

Updated: May 15, 2026 · Reference month: 2025-05

County locality factors

Locality factors are derived from HUD Fair Market Rents (2BR) and normalized to the national median. ZIP codes inherit the weighted factors for every county they intersect via the USPS ZIP-county crosswalk. Higher factors lift the Nowcast above the national industry trend; lower factors suppress it.

Highest factors

CountyFactorAs of
Santa Cruz County, CA
FIPS: 06087
4.2952025-10
Marin County, CA
FIPS: 06041
3.5582025-10
San Francisco County, CA
FIPS: 06075
3.5582025-10
San Mateo County, CA
FIPS: 06081
3.5582025-10
Santa Clara County, CA
FIPS: 06085
3.3182025-10
Santa Barbara County, CA
FIPS: 06083
3.1722025-10
Monterey County, CA
FIPS: 06053
3.0502025-10
San Diego County, CA
FIPS: 06073
3.0012025-10
Middlesex County, MA
FIPS: 25017
2.9952025-10
Norfolk County, MA
FIPS: 25021
2.9952025-10
Suffolk County, MA
FIPS: 25025
2.9952025-10
Orange County, CA
FIPS: 06059
2.9482025-10
Bronx County, NY
FIPS: 36005
2.9152025-10
Kings County, NY
FIPS: 36047
2.9152025-10
New York County, NY
FIPS: 36061
2.9152025-10

Lowest factors

CountyFactorAs of
Atchison County, MO
FIPS: 29005
0.8442025-10
Audrain County, MO
FIPS: 29007
0.8442025-10
Barry County, MO
FIPS: 29009
0.8442025-10
Barton County, MO
FIPS: 29011
0.8442025-10
Carroll County, MO
FIPS: 29033
0.8442025-10
Carter County, MO
FIPS: 29035
0.8442025-10
Cedar County, MO
FIPS: 29039
0.8442025-10
Chariton County, MO
FIPS: 29041
0.8442025-10
Clark County, MO
FIPS: 29045
0.8442025-10
Crawford County, MO
FIPS: 29055
0.8442025-10
Dade County, MO
FIPS: 29057
0.8442025-10
Dallas County, MO
FIPS: 29059
0.8442025-10
Daviess County, MO
FIPS: 29061
0.8442025-10
Dent County, MO
FIPS: 29065
0.8442025-10
Douglas County, MO
FIPS: 29067
0.8442025-10

Updated: Apr 2026 (build) · Data as-of: Oct 2025 · Puerto Rico counties are hidden here because Puerto Rico is not selectable in the estimator UI.

Refresh cadence

We update each dataset when the source agency publishes. Current coverage and next release windows:

  • Monthly

    CES Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) levels and the chained multipliers that drive the Current (Nowcast) view.

    Current
    Last refresh:
    May 15, 2026
    Current data through:
    Mar 2026
    Next release window:
    May 2026
    Source: BLS CES release schedule

  • Quarterly

    Employment Cost Index (ECI) levels and industry chains shortly after BLS releases each quarter (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct).

    Current
    Last refresh:
    May 15, 2026
    Current published quarter:
    Mar 2026
    Next release window:
    Jul 2026
    Source: BLS ECI release schedule

  • Annually

    HUD Fair Market Rents (county-level) plus USPS ZIP-county crosswalks feed the locality factors; we clamp between releases to avoid unwanted drift.

    Current
    Last refresh:
    Apr 2026 (as-of Oct 2025)
    Current source as-of:
    Oct 2025
    Next planned refresh:
    Oct 2026
    Source: HUD Fair Market Rents · HUD USPS ZIP crosswalks

  • OEWS baseline

    When BLS publishes the new OEWS year, we ingest the release, update the reference month, and rebuild the chains.

    Current
    Last refresh:
    May 15, 2026
    Current baseline period:
    May 2025
    Next official release:
    May 2027 (May 2026 OEWS)

    The next BLS OEWS release will add May 2026 reference-period data.

    Source: BLS OEWS updates

Internally we follow a matching playbook so every release follows the same cadence; contact support if you need a copy for audit reviews.

Download the raw datasets

These JSON exports live under /public/data/nowcast inside the app and are bundled with production builds.