Pay MemoPay Memo
Every input. Fully transparent.

Transparency & methodology

Pay Memo uses only public Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and HUD data, plus USPS ZIP-county crosswalks. This page lists the exact indices, locality factors, and blending logic so finance, HR, and auditors can recreate every estimate.

Open the Estimator How it works overview ↗

Nowcast pipeline

We start with the latest BLS OEWS wage percentiles (state or MSA), then layer the following adjustments:

  1. Linear scaling for the requested hours/week and weeks/year.
  2. Optional benefits markup (employer cost of benefits vs base wage).
  3. Industry pay updates: ECI captures total comp movement, and AHE captures hourly trends since the OEWS reference month.
  4. ZIP-level locality factor based on HUD Fair Market Rents (county-level) mapped to ZIPs via the USPS crosswalk (see below).
  5. Optional conversion between annual and hourly display.

Every exported memo bundles the SOC, industry key, index release dates, and multipliers so reviewers can reproduce the range independently.

Blended index weights

The Estimator blends ECI, AHE, and locality inputs without renormalising user weights. Today's weights are:

Employment Cost Index (ECI)
70%

Captures total compensation growth for each NAICS supersector.

Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)
20%

Keeps pace with recent hourly pay moves in the same industry.

Locality factor
10%

Scales the estimate up/down based on ZIP-to-county living cost differentials.

Industry index sources

Each industry key maps to a specific BLS Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Current Employment Statistics (AHE) series. We publish the references and last chained multiplier for quick validation.

Need the plain-language overview? Visit the industries explainer.

IndustryECI seriesAHE seriesLatest monthECI multiplier
Accommodation & Food ServicesECI_ACCOMMODATION_FOOD_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_ACCOMMODATION_FOOD2025-121.039
Administrative & Support and Waste MgmtECI_ADMIN_SUPPORT_WASTE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_ADMIN_SUPPORT_WASTE2025-121.039
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & HuntingECI_AGRICULTURE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_AGRICULTURE2025-121.048
Arts, Entertainment & RecreationECI_ARTS_ENT_REC_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_ARTS_ENT_REC2025-121.040
ConstructionECI_CONSTRUCTION_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_CONSTRUCTION2025-121.060
Educational ServicesECI_EDUCATION_SERVICES_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_EDUCATIONAL_SERVICES2025-121.064
Finance & InsuranceECI_FINANCE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_FINANCE2025-121.046
Health Care & Social AssistanceECI_HEALTHCARE_SOCIAL_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_HEALTHCARE_SOCIAL2025-121.064
InformationECI_INFORMATION_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_INFORMATION2025-121.038
Management of Companies & EnterprisesECI_MANAGEMENT_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_MANAGEMENT2025-121.036
ManufacturingECI_MANUFACTURING_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_MANUFACTURING2025-121.047
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil & Gas ExtractionECI_MINING_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_MINING2025-121.047
Other Services (except Public Administration)ECI_OTHER_SERVICES_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_OTHER_SERVICES2025-121.057
Professional, Scientific & Technical ServicesECI_PROF_SCI_TECH_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_PROF_SCI_TECH2025-121.042
Public AdministrationECI_PUBLIC_ADMIN_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_PUBLIC_ADMIN—1.000
Real Estate & Rental and LeasingECI_REAL_ESTATE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_REAL_ESTATE2025-121.049
Retail TradeECI_RETAIL_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_RETAIL2025-121.042
Software & Tech (alias of Information)ECI_INFORMATION_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_INFORMATION2025-121.042
Transportation & WarehousingECI_TRANSPORT_WAREHOUSING_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_TRANSPORT_WAREHOUSING2025-121.049
UtilitiesECI_UTILITIES_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_UTILITIES2025-121.058
Wholesale TradeECI_WHOLESALE_ALL_EMPAHE_SUPERSECTOR_WHOLESALE2025-121.038

Updated: 2025-10-06 · Reference month: 2024-05

County locality factors

Locality factors are derived from HUD Fair Market Rents (2BR) and normalized to the national median. ZIP codes inherit the weighted factors for every county they intersect via the USPS ZIP-county crosswalk. Higher factors lift the Nowcast above the national industry trend; lower factors suppress it.

Highest factors

CountyFactorAs of
Santa Cruz County, CA
FIPS: 06087
4.2952025-10
Marin County, CA
FIPS: 06041
3.5582025-10
San Francisco County, CA
FIPS: 06075
3.5582025-10
San Mateo County, CA
FIPS: 06081
3.5582025-10
Santa Clara County, CA
FIPS: 06085
3.3182025-10
Santa Barbara County, CA
FIPS: 06083
3.1722025-10
Monterey County, CA
FIPS: 06053
3.0502025-10
San Diego County, CA
FIPS: 06073
3.0012025-10
Middlesex County, MA
FIPS: 25017
2.9952025-10
Norfolk County, MA
FIPS: 25021
2.9952025-10
Suffolk County, MA
FIPS: 25025
2.9952025-10
Orange County, CA
FIPS: 06059
2.9482025-10
Bronx County, NY
FIPS: 36005
2.9152025-10
Kings County, NY
FIPS: 36047
2.9152025-10
New York County, NY
FIPS: 36061
2.9152025-10

Lowest factors

CountyFactorAs of
Atchison County, MO
FIPS: 29005
0.8442025-10
Audrain County, MO
FIPS: 29007
0.8442025-10
Barry County, MO
FIPS: 29009
0.8442025-10
Barton County, MO
FIPS: 29011
0.8442025-10
Carroll County, MO
FIPS: 29033
0.8442025-10
Carter County, MO
FIPS: 29035
0.8442025-10
Cedar County, MO
FIPS: 29039
0.8442025-10
Chariton County, MO
FIPS: 29041
0.8442025-10
Clark County, MO
FIPS: 29045
0.8442025-10
Crawford County, MO
FIPS: 29055
0.8442025-10
Dade County, MO
FIPS: 29057
0.8442025-10
Dallas County, MO
FIPS: 29059
0.8442025-10
Daviess County, MO
FIPS: 29061
0.8442025-10
Dent County, MO
FIPS: 29065
0.8442025-10
Douglas County, MO
FIPS: 29067
0.8442025-10

Updated: 2026-02 · Puerto Rico counties are hidden here because Puerto Rico is not selectable in the estimator UI.

Refresh cadence

We update each dataset on the same schedule the source agency publishes. Highlights:

  • Monthly – CES Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) levels and the chained multipliers that drive the Current (Nowcast) view.
    Source: BLS CES release schedule
    Last refresh: Feb 19, 2026 · Next scheduled: Feb 2026
  • Quarterly – Employment Cost Index (ECI) levels and industry chains shortly after BLS releases each quarter (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct).
    Source: BLS ECI release schedule
    Last refresh: Feb 19, 2026 · Next scheduled: Mar 2026
  • Annually – HUD Fair Market Rents (county-level) plus USPS ZIP-county crosswalks feed the locality factors; we clamp between releases to avoid unwanted drift.
    Source: HUD Fair Market Rents · HUD USPS ZIP crosswalks
    Last refresh: Feb 2026 · Next scheduled: Feb 2027
  • OEWS baseline – When BLS publishes the new OEWS year, we ingest the release, update the reference month, and rebuild the chains.
    Source: BLS OEWS updates
    Last refresh: Feb 24, 2026 · Next scheduled: May 2025

Internally we follow a matching playbook so every release follows the same cadence; contact support if you need a copy for audit reviews.

Download the raw datasets

These JSON exports live under /public/data/nowcast inside the app and are bundled with production builds.